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Easy rice noodle market in China's present situation and prospects
Since the fourth quarter of 2008, China's sharp decline in sales of instant rice noodle, giving the industry has brought unexpected shocks. But I still firmly believe that the industry's future is bright, and I did not expect instant rice noodle decrease is so large; from 30% to 70% decline.
An easy rice market, a sharp contraction in excess of the industry's imagination
China's Instant Rice Noodles (referring to the water brewing-type products) there are three types: self-cooked-style bridge noodle, instant shahe rice noodles, and traditional crafts of the instant noodle. 5 ~ 6 years ago, cross the bridge noodle is developing rapidly, in the proportion of three categories of products, estimated at more than 75%. Instant shahe rice noodles relatively slow pace of expansion of the traditional craft of the instant noodle market continues to shrink small proportion of the whole market to facilitate the effect of rice does not work. In fact, the bridge has become so easy rice noodle rice noodle market, the most important factor.
Since the financial crisis, China's various industries are affected to various extents. Instant noodles, rice noodles easy, convenient potato fans also subject to a negative impact, but hardest hit is to facilitate the rice market, mainly to bridge noodle market. Than the sales of all manufacturing enterprises the highest sales were down 30% ~ 70%. In the mainstream production companies, their sales dropped by 30% to 40% is normal, the situation is regarded as the best.
Such enterprises as long as the financial crisis is over, it will recover. Has dropped 50% to 70% of the production enterprises are caught off guard and helpless, from the original feel of the market is too optimistic about the prospects at once. Almost all rice production enterprises to facilitate the operators regarded the emergence of the big slide the blame on the global financial crisis and raw materials (rice) prices. In fact, apart from these fuse reasons, there are deeper reasons.
Second, to facilitate rice market, the reasons for large landslide analysis
1, the negative impact of the global financial crisis
The global financial crisis triggered a substantial decline in China's export trade, so that part of the export-oriented manufacturing enterprises today cut or stop production, a small number of enterprises have to reduce wages. Bridge noodle is the main consumer groups, most of these enterprises by younger employees. The consumer groups narrowed, and a direct impact on the bridge noodle sales. The impact of the large, economically more developed regions of the producers felt the most. Give an indirect example: Dongguan City is the bridge noodle main sales markets. Employees from across the country many, many of which are rented accommodation.
Not long ago, the local rental housing has been a very thriving industry, but recent statistics rental vacancy rate in different regions in Dongguan, respectively, 20% ~ 50%, which indicates that there are a lot of staff left the Dongguan City, directly across the bridge reduced Rice Vermicelli consumer groups. Some employees are still working in the economic outlook remains bleak until a lower price would choose a non-brewing-style rice noodle instead of the bridge.
2, overestimation of the speed of development to facilitate rice flour, the inevitable bitter fruit of blind expansion of production capacity
More than a year ago, the industry lay a lot of operators are predicted to varying degrees, to facilitate the outbreak of rice have continued to grow. At the time, I had expressed in an article in the different views that explosive growth is a violation of laws of the market overheating estimates. The bridge in 2006, and brew-style rice noodle Shahe Fen's annual output is 5 billion yuan only, but since 2007, has been manufacturing enterprises expansion and new equipment for production of new annual production capacity of up to one billion yuan.
This means that the existing capacity and new capacity is about 1.5 billion. In two or three years to completely absorb the new capacity is twice that of the original is almost impossible. This is already apparent before the financial tsunami, the financial crisis is only a detonating fuse, or can be said that the excessive expansion of production capacity to deepen and enlarge the negative impact of the financial crisis. This explains why the convenience of the impact of rice markets are much more serious than the instant-noodle.
3, not the normal marketing tools, creating a market bubble
As noted above, to facilitate production of rice noodles nearly 1 ~ 2 years, much higher than the market capacity. Enterprises in order to quickly capture the market in order to give full play to their capacity, not hesitate to use all formal and non formal approaches promote a product. Some dealers in order to obtain substantial manufacturer sales incentives, regardless of whether sold before picking up your prize exaggeration to say. This will enable the production decision and the actual market demands these days.
Enterprise decision-makers are based only on the number of reported sales blindly optimistic about the situation, to expand production. This vicious cycle to a certain extent, it will form a market bubble. Backlog still purchase a large number of product distributors, new ones is a large number of purchasing dealer. The formation of the bubble in the market illusion. Financial crisis a result, the bubble burst. Manufacturers to recover the backlog of products that enable accelerated decline in production is declining, to recycle the expired products to businesses enormous economic losses.
Third, respect for the laws of the market, the prospects remain bright
Can not be denied, convenient noodle industry, the difficulties encountered with the financial crisis has a direct relationship, but even more important and deeper reason is that the market ignored the law of development. As long as the sum up experiences and lessons of capacity over the General Assembly gradually be digested, the market after the bubble burst, eliminating potential problems will be gradually into a virtuous development path, the future is bright. In the future development, there will be some new situation:
1, cross the bridge noodle over the years are based on double-digit growth every year, it is estimated to normal after the crisis has passed into an annual 10% to 20% of the rate of growth is possible. To facilitate this growth rate showed that rice production is a promising industry.
2, and will be a number of large companies involved in this industry, the market will be allocated to re-shuffle. No matter which company to expand production capacity, not rely solely on market growth to absorb all the new production, but mainly relying on the market share of pie in the fight for a greater share. This means that only through competition to win. Thus, each firm in the expansion or new to join the industry, make sure to an objective assessment of their competitive advantages and disadvantages, and accordingly make a choice.
3, to facilitate the rice industry to withstand the shock, there will be some changes. Bridge noodle consumption of the object to change the original younger employees based industries, to make this group back to its original level of consumption, the earliest six months to a year. During this time, there will be a number of new consumer groups, which augurs well for future expansion of the market.
4, with the large companies involved in this industry, small businesses should be based on the more difficult in this industry. Large enterprises in the management, production technology and equipment, product quality have a greater increase. In the product structure, bowl, cup products have a greater proportion of the increase. This aspect will be the emergence of new consumption layer; the other hand, means that the output value of the future growth of this industry will be significantly higher than output growth.
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